Edward L. Glaeser is the Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where he has taught economic theory and urban economics since 1992. He also leads the Urban Economics Working Group at the National Bureau of Economics Research, co-leads the Cities Programme of the International Growth Centre, and co-edits the Journal of Urban Economics. He has written hundreds of papers on cities, infrastructure and other topics, and written, co-written and co-edited many books including Triumph  of the City, Survival of the City (with David Cutler) and Fighting Poverty in the U.S. and Europe: A World of Difference (with Alberto Alesina). He has served as Director of the Taubman Center for State and Local Government and the Rappaport Institute for Greater Boston, Editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and Chair of Harvard’s Economics Department. He is a Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Academy of Political and Social Science, and the Econometric Society, and he received the Albert O. Hirschman prize from the Social Science Research Council. He received his A.B. from Princeton University in 1988 and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago in 1992.

“America in Transition: Uncovering the Dynamics of Regional Economic Decline and Adaptation” – Abdelaziz Lawani, Tennessee State University & Anna-Liisa Ihuhwa, Vanderbilt University

In recent decades, deindustrialization has fundamentally reshaped the American economic landscape, leading to marked disparities in economic output and quality of life (QoL) across regions. This paper develops and empirically tests a dynamic theoretical framework to understand how deindustrialization shocks affect regional economic output and quality of life across U.S. counties. Our model shows that a region’s effective output is determined by its baseline potential and four key channels: human capital, institutional quality, adaptive capacity, and economic diversification. Our model provides clear, testable predictions and suggests that i) deindustrialization shocks have both direct and indirect adverse effects on output, triggering feedback mechanisms that further erode quality of life, and ii) regions endowed with higher resilience achieve higher steady-state output and better living conditions.

We test the model using a rich panel dataset of U.S. counties covering 2001–2022, employing pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, system GMM, and quantile regression techniques. Our findings reveal that, although cross-sectional estimates indicate positive relationships between resilience factors and economic output, the fixed effects results highlight more nuanced within-county dynamics; in particular, quality of life emerges as a robust predictor of output while human capital and diversification exhibit mixed effects over time. Quantile regression shows significant heterogeneity, with low-output regions benefiting disproportionately from improvements in human capital and diversification, whereas high-output regions appear more vulnerable to deindustrialization shocks. The evidence underscores the need for regionally tailored policies that simultaneously enhance social infrastructure and address unemployment to foster long-run economic resilience.

“States’ Role in Economic Growth” – Frederick Treyz, Regional Economic Models, Inc.

The United States is going through major shifts that are affecting the economic and demographic landscape of regions. Climate change, aging populations, and technology advancement are all impacting where people are deciding to live and work. In response to these trends, states and cities must implement policies to encourage a positive economic future. Whether it be through strengthening local services, investing in resilience infrastructure to combat climate change, promoting production, workforce development for emerging industries, or adapting to technological advancements, states must set themselves up to be competitive. In this presentation, Dr. Frederick Treyz will discuss these national challenges as well as specific strategies to navigate them.

“The Rural Benefit for Intergenerational Mobility: Exploring Mechanisms” – Kelsey Carlston, Gonzaga University

While urban areas were historically engines of intergenerational mobility, recent evidence from Connor et al (2025) suggests that children born in rural communities now experience better adult economic outcomes than their urban counterparts. This paper investigates two possible explanations for this rural advantage. First, does the benefit extend to all rural-born children, or only to those who relocate as adults? Second, is the observed rural benefit driven by the temporary effects of the mining and fracking boom that peaked around 2015? To answer these questions, I use tract-level data from the Opportunity Atlas. For the first, I restrict the sample to individuals who remained in their childhood counties. For the second, I incorporate both industrial composition data and updated Opportunity Atlas results for children born in the 1990s. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of how geography shapes economic opportunity in contemporary America and offers insight into the shifting landscape of upward mobility.

“The Economics of Wyoming’s Energy Transition” – David Aadland & Alex Specht, University of Wyoming

Wyoming’s state economy is largely dependent on the production of coal, oil, and natural gas for much of its employment and fiscal revenue. The transition away from fossil-fuel use and the gradual decrease in production necessitates that Wyoming adapts is fiscal policy and seeks economic diversification through non-fossil-fuel industries. We examine the risk to Wyoming’s state budget due to decreases in public mineral revenues by conducting long-term forecasts of Wyoming’s economy under the fossil-fuel transition, simulating effects of these changes on expected fiscal revenue, estimating the historical impacts of resource busts on public good provision, and exploring gaps in Wyoming’s public good provisions that hinder the attraction of non-fossil-fuel industries. We then shift our focus to identifying alternative avenues of growth for Wyoming focusing on 5 emerging industries: nuclear, quantum computing, outdoor recreation, sustainable agriculture, and nonthermal uses for coal. In doing so, we analyze the industry’s supply chain, identify barriers to the industry’s introduction in the state, and estimate the employment and fiscal impacts of the industry’s introduction.

“The Local Economic Impact of Coal Mine Closures” – Adam Scavette, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Heather Stephens, West Virginia University & David Nason, Florida Gulf Coast University

U.S. coal production has fallen sharply since its peak in 2008. Appalachia has disproportionately borne the impacts of this decline, experiencing significant reductions in coal production, mining employment, and mine operations. Previous research has linked coal mine closures to local economic downturns, as affected communities have experienced job losses, population decline, and reduced local tax revenues. However, the long-term implications remain uncertain, as some research suggests the presence of a natural resource curse in which regions dependent on resource extraction struggle with weak economic development. In this paper, we use quasi-experimental methods to examine the impact of mine closures on local poverty in Appalachia. Analyzing 65 counties with mine closures between 2005 and 2009, we find that, over a decade, mine closures led to at least a 4-6 percent average reduction (1-2 percentage points) in their county’s poverty rate. We find suggestive evidence that local poverty reduction was driven by population decline (via net outmigration), wage increases, and rising educational investment (via employment and attainment).

“Montana Fishing Expenditure Survey: Overcoming Avidity Bias and Unlicensed Anglers” – Jeffrey Michael & John Baldridge, University of Montana

Montana is a premier recreational fishing destination that generates significant spending from nonresident and resident anglers. We conducted a detailed expenditure survey of 4,000 licensed anglers in 2024 and 2025. The survey responses were non-representative due to avidity bias, and our data also did not include unlicensed anglers. Using data from general visitation surveys and other 3rd-party sources, we were able to employ a novel approach to weight the data to account for avidity bias. In addition, we used general visitor surveys for Montana, national fishing surveys, and warden enforcement data to estimate the number of unlicensed anglers and their spending patterns. The results may be helpful to other economists correcting bias in survey samples and estimating out-of-sample populations.

“What’s New with FRED® and Friends” – Diego Mendez-Carbajo & Maria Arias, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is a free economic database that contains over 825,000 US and international time series from over 100 sources. FRED is a valuable tool used by researchers, journalists, analysts, economic educators and data enthusiasts to visualize, save, and download data.
The purpose of this presentation is to demonstrate new data and features added to FRED and its related ecosystem over the last 12 months. Members of the FRED team will guide session participants through data search and customization exercises combining the web portals of FRED, Archival FRED (ALFRED), the FRED Blog, and FRED accounts.
Session participants will learn how to search for FRED data by category, source, or release name and how to display those data as a graph, a map, a table, or a single number. Participants will learn how to compile all that information into a dashboard that is relevant to their storytelling about a particular topic or region. Because the numbers and figures in a FRED dashboard update automatically, every time the series update, the stories they tell stay fresh and compelling.
Session participants interested in certifying their existing FRED data skills, or developing new ones, can enroll in our free asynchronous micro-credential program: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/digital-badges/fred-data-practitioner

Coming soon.

Coming soon.

“The Impact of the Healthcare Industry in Regional Economic Growth” – Manuel Reyes & Cecilia Cuellar, University of Texas at Tyler

The healthcare industry plays a vital role in shaping regional economic development by influencing employment, income levels, business growth, and overall economic stability. This study aims to assess the impact of the healthcare sector on key economic development variables in the East Texas region using statistical analysis. By leveraging data from healthcare institutions, labor market reports, and regional economic indicators, the study will evaluate how healthcare-related employment, expenditures, and infrastructure investments contribute to economic growth.
The research will employ econometric modeling techniques, including regression analysis to identify correlations between healthcare sector performance and variables such as job creation, median income, business formation, and regional economic growth.
Findings from this study will provide valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and healthcare administrators in East Texas, offering evidence-based recommendations on strengthening the region’s economic foundation through strategic healthcare investments. The results will also contribute to broader discussions on the role of healthcare in regional economic resilience and long-term development. By analyzing historical trends and projecting future impacts, this research aims to support informed decision-making for sustainable economic growth in East Texas.

“Towards Safer Streets: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis of Vision Zero Speed Policies” – Daniel Centuriao, West Virginia University

New York City’s Vision Zero initiative encompasses a comprehensive set of traffic safety measures aimed at reducing accidents, injuries, and fatalities. Among its components are targeted speed-limit enforcement policies, including slow zones, speed humps, and automated enforcement systems. This study develops a theoretical framework to model driver behavior under localized enforcement, providing the foundation for an empirical analysis that exploits variation in the timing of policy implementation. Leveraging granular, street-level, daily data on motor vehicle accidents, injuries, and fatalities, I implement an event-study design to estimate the causal effects of these interventions. To further refine the choice of treatment distances in the main specification, I employ nonparametric binscatter regressions that offer a more informed view of where enforcement effects begin and dissipate.
The results uncover a counterintuitive spatial pattern: accident rates tend to increase in very close proximity to treated areas, while injuries and fatalities decline as distance from the intervention site increases. This suggests that enforcement may produce intensified interactions or potentially exacerbated congestion effects locally, while contributing to improved safety outcomes in nearby areas. These patterns appear consistently across different enforcement types, indicating a general behavioral response rather than a policy-specific effect.
These findings challenge the prevailing consensus that increased enforcement uniformly alters driver behavior in beneficial ways. Instead, they point to the possibility that heightened penalties—rather than localized enforcement alone—may be a more effective and less costly tool for discouraging risky driving behaviors. In particular, high-enforcement policies such as automated monitoring systems, when paired with steeper penalties, may serve as a more stringent and scalable deterrent. As cities weigh how to improve roadway safety, this study offers critical evidence on the comparative efficiency of enforcement mechanisms and raises important considerations about cost-effectiveness and behavioral impact in urban transportation policy.

“The Impact of SSA Field Office Closures on Disability Program Participation” – Caroline Welter, West Virginia University

This paper estimates the impact of Social Security Administration (SSA) field office closures on participation in federal disability benefit programs. I exploit the uniform, nationwide closure of over 1,200 SSA field offices during the COVID-19 lockdown period as a natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I compare changes in the number of newly enrolled disabled beneficiaries across ZIP codes with and without a local SSA office.

“Resilient Centers and Institutes: Diversifying Funding for Long-Term Impact”

How can AUBER members secure sustainable funding that supports their mission and impact while ensuring long term growth? This roundtable explores strategies for securing flexible funding that goes beyond project-based grants and contracts. With increasing uncertainty in federal and state funding, centers and institutes must think creatively about revenue diversification to sustain capacity and impact. Join fellow AUBER members to hear innovative approaches, discuss challenges, and share your experiences navigating the evolving funding landscape.

“DRC3: Impact vs Contribution Analysis for the Forest Products Industry” – Samuel Scott, Luke Koch, Robert Sonora, & Todd Morgan, University of Montana

The economic role of the forest products industry is a central concern for policymakers and land managers, especially public land managers who are legally required to evaluate the effects of their management decisions. Traditional analyses, such as direct response coefficient (DRC) and employment consumption models, offer limited insight due to methodological opacity, data constraints, and their focus on economic contribution rather than impact. Here we introduce DRC3, a framework that uses primarily publicly available economic and forest products data to estimate both contribution and impact through a transparent, log-log panel regression model. By incorporating elasticity-based analysis, fixed effects, and control variables, DRC3 accounts for diminishing marginal labor requirements and regional variation. We demonstrate its utility through two cases: contribution analysis for Minnesota’s Department of Natural Resources and impact analysis for US Forest Service Region One. Results suggest that DRC3 provides a scalable, theory-aligned, and policy-relevant improvement over legacy approaches.

“Economics Effects of Media Trade” – Magda Kondaridze & Geoffrey Thatcher, Gonzaga University

In today’s world, media products—such as films, music, and digital content—play an increasingly important role not only in shaping global culture but also in influencing economic and political relationships. This is especially relevant given recent trends in the global media industry: the rise of streaming platforms, increased use of cultural content for geopolitical influence, and ongoing debates over trade policies and content quotas. Yet, despite the growing importance of media as an economic, political, and cultural domain, the studies on media trade are scant in the empirical trade literature. In this study, we apply the gravity model of international trade, following Hanson and Xiang (2009), to the global media industry to better understand how media moves across borders. The gravity model is a powerful framework for analyzing media trade flows by capturing the effects of geography (such as distance and shared borders), cultural proximity, religion, languages, shared history, and economic size, as well as policy measures, such as content quotas, censorship indicators, and trade agreements. Preliminary results show that these variables are in line with the trade theory, with the signs of estimated coefficients consistent with theoretical expectations.

“More Than Wine? The Impact of AVAs on Craft Beer and Other Related Industries” – Matthew McMahon, West Chester University; Sarah Quintanar, University of North Texas; & Gary A. Wagner, University of Louisiana at Lafayette

There is ample empirical evidence that American Viticultural Area (AVA) designation – and even sub-appellation (or “sub-AVA”) designation within an overarching AVA – has a positive reputation effect for grapes grown and wines produced within its designated area. These official designations delimit “grape-growing region[s] with specific geographic or climatic features that distinguish [it] from the surrounding regions and affect how grapes are grown” (TTB.gov, 2024). In our analysis, we use annual, census tract-level panel data spanning the contiguous US states that either include an AVA or border a state which does. This dataset contains details on employment and establishments in these industries along with detailed AVA data. We measure AVA impact through detailed geographic data which identifies which census tracts were included in the legal boundaries of AVAs over time, among other potential factors.

Abigail (Abbie) Wozniak is a labor economist and vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where she serves as director of the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute. Her research has examined migration between states and cities, employer compensation and screening policies, and sources of inequality in the labor market. Abbie has served in advisory and affiliate roles for numerous institutions, including the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), the Labor and Employment Relations Association (LERA), the W.E. Upjohn Institute, McKinsey & Company, and the EconJobMarket website. Her work has been featured regularly in the media, and she has been interviewed on Marketplace, National Public Radio, Bloomberg TV, and other outlets.

From 2014 to 2015, Abbie served as senior economist to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, working on labor economics issues. She was a visiting fellow at Princeton University in 2008–09 and the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute in 2017. She previously served on the faculty in the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame, where she earned tenure in 2013. She is a graduate of Harvard University (Ph.D.) and the University of Chicago (A.B.). She is a former associate economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“Empowering American Cities: Lessons Learned from a Corporate Collaboration” – Shannon Harris, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill

The United States, known for its diverse geographies and cultures, also exhibits significant economic diversity. National statistics often overlook the true drivers of economic growth. By examining America’s microeconomies—our counties, cities and towns—we can better understand broader economic trends. However, the necessary data to explain why some towns thrive while others falter is often lacking. To address this, the Kenan Institute launched the American Growth Project (AGP) in 2022, offering real-time economic data, analysis, and forecasting for towns, cities, and counties. This initiative supports decision-makers with insights into industry growth, labor readiness, skill gaps, and the urban-rural economic divide.
At last year’s AUBER conference, we presented an overview of the American Growth Project and its potential for regional economic analysis. This year, we will present on Empowering American Cities, a collaboration between the Kenan Institute’s AGP team and Fifth Third Bank. Empowering American Cities combines regional, on-the-ground insights from one of the nation’s largest regional banks and the academic research of the Kenan Institute. Our events, reports and data dashboards provide insights supporting sustained business growth and healthy communities in a way that extends beyond traditional banking solutions.
This presentation will provide an overview of our collaboration – the goals, structure, and metrics – as well as a reflection of lessons learned over the past two years of the project.

“Aligning Incentives: Economic Research Centers, Student Outcomes, and Economic Development Needs” – Patrick Scott, Louisiana Tech University

Business and economic research centers (BERCs) operate in a liminal space in higher education. At the intersection of public-private partnerships, expertise, information technology, and university life, BERCs have the unique opportunity to partner with academic affairs to leverage students in order to meet some of the research output needs of EDOs. Curricular programing has been created at the graduate and undergraduate level so that students gain both marketable experience and tangible professional output for resume building. Through open dialog and networking, EDO questions and data needs are met via targeted class projects. This allows BERCs to utilize an ever-revolving door of student labor to meet its broader service goals. Academic Affairs is further able to fundraise from these efforts.
At the undergraduate-level, students participate in guided research that is published in the quarterly Regional Economic Analysis of Louisiana (REAL) Report. This report, now entering its seventh year, is directly mailed to almost 500 legislators, government agency officials, chambers of commerce, EDOs, and business leaders (as well as being available online). The report is part of the educational outcome of an upper division economics elective course, Regional Economic Analysis. At the graduate level, a newly established four-course sequence in economic development is created to serve as either an MBA concentration or graduate certificate so economic developers do not have to leave the state for advanced training. Graduate theses are relatively larger impact studies designed to provide both community service to municipalities and practical, marketable job experience.

“Small Business Creation in Nevada During and After the Pandemic” – Andrew Woods, Stephen M. Miller, Jinju Lee, & Amanda Joy Lee, University of Nevada Las Vegas

Nevada experienced one of the highest rates of new business creation in the nation during the pandemic. CBER’s white paper summarizes who, what, and where new small businesses were created during and after the pandemic and provides some explanations as to why this occurred and it was a one off or longer term structural change to our economy.

“Hotel Rate Effect from Low Cost Airline Activity” – Richard Hawkins & Alex Vargas, University of West Florida

Early findings indicate that Florida visitors who use Ultra Low Cost Carriers are not different in the hotel market.

“The Economic Impact of Duluth International Airport: Modeling Approaches and Regional Implications” – Monica Haynes, University of Minnesota Duluth

Duluth International Airport (DLH), a regional hub, is home to unique economic drivers, including the major aviation manufacturing firm Cirrus and significant general aviation traffic. In partnership with the Duluth Airport Authority, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth estimated DLH’s economic impact on the state of Minnesota. This study replicated a previous economic impact analysis (EIA) from over five years ago by the Minnesota Department of Transportation.
This session will explore the challenges of replicating the previous study’s methodology while accounting for DLH’s distinct role in aviation manufacturing and general aviation. Key findings will be presented across five categories: airport management, business tenants, capital investments, and spending by general aviation and commercial visitors.
Attendees will learn about the input-output (IO) modeling techniques used in our analysis—industry impact analysis, industry contribution analysis, and multi-regional input-output models—designed to capture direct, indirect, and induced effects, providing an accurate estimate of DLH’s economic contributions.
We will also discuss broader economic implications, including workforce challenges like labor participation, housing shortages, and demographic trends.
Attendees will gain takeaways for conducting economic impact studies on regional airports, including how to modify models for airports with unique attributes and strategies for updating or revisiting studies.

“Advancing Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis in Oregon: A Framework for Multimodal and Equitable Outcomes” – Jenny H. Liu, Portland State University

Transportation agencies need effective tools to evaluate projects and policies, and this research addresses the need for an Oregon-specific multimodal BCA framework. This research informs the development of the Oregon-specific BCA framework by synthesizing existing knowledge and best practices, and building on existing ODOT work. This framework will provide a foundation for improved decision-making, quantifying both benefits and costs, and addressing equity and distributional concerns.
Our work to date includes a comprehensive literature review of BCA parameters, measurement methods, and methodologies, and a best practices review of transportation BCAs from federal agencies, state DOTs, MPOs, and international governments. Although there are varying levels of implementation in practice, we have identified approaches to incorporating equity considerations, sensitivity analysis, and emerging transportation modes through this synthesis. We will also discuss the next phases of our project to develop the Oregon-specific multimodal BCA framework and an interactive calculator, grounded in established methodologies and best practices, and tailored to the state’s unique context and priorities.

The Mandela Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders is the flagship program of the U.S. Government’s Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI). Since 2014, nearly 7,200 young leaders from every country in Sub-Saharan Africa have participated in the Fellowship. The Fellows, between the ages of 25 and 35, are accomplished leaders and have established records of promoting innovation and positive impact in their communities and countries.

“San Joaquin County (California) Data Compass” – Thomas Pogue & Steven McCarty, University of the Pacific

SJC Data Compass is a public-facing, interactive platform designed to guide understanding and action on key regional issues. It aggregates curated data from local, state, and national sources to support informed decision-making across sectors such as the economy, transportation, social dynamics, and the environment. Each indicator includes dynamic visualizations, downloadable datasets, and source links, with many offering historical trends and geographic comparisons.
Developed and maintained by the Center for Business and Policy Research (CBPR) at the University of the Pacific for a long-term public agency partner, the platform also serves as an evolving tool for engaged student learning. It brings together a multidisciplinary team of students—from engineering and public policy to economics and business—providing hands-on experience in data analysis, visualization, and communication. This engagement helps students build the skills needed to navigate today’s complex and rapidly changing information landscape.
SJC Data Compass is a vital resource for local governments, community-based organizations, planners, researchers, and residents. It supports planning, grant writing, advocacy, evaluation, and policy analysis by providing accessible and timely insights into trends shaping one of California’s fastest-growing and most diverse regions. This presentation will highlight the platform’s development, design, and applications—illustrating how regional data tools can inform equitable, evidence-based strategies and empower stakeholders.

“Strategies for Development: Six Forces of Regional Excellence” – Timothy Slaper, Indiana University

We propose an analytical framework for developing regional development strategies and policies. Inspired by the intuitive, theoretical and practical appeal of Michael Porter’s Five Forces, we integrate the scope of the “Triple Bottom Line,” the tenets of regional and urban planning, and the strength of economic theory into an analytical strategic framework. The six forces of regional excellence illuminate the strategies, tactics and metrics to achieving greater regional prosperity and durability.

ABSTRACT: The American West has long captivated the imagination with its rugged landscapes, vast wilderness, and vibrant communities. In recent years, the intersection of tourism, recreation, regional identity, and population shifts has become increasingly vital to understanding the socio-economic dynamics of this unique part of the country. This panel brings together leading researchers from Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming to explore the multifaceted value of place in the context of tourism, recreation, and demographic changes.

The discussion will examine how local and regional identity influences tourism strategies and recreational development, as well as how these elements contribute to sustainable economic growth. A particular focus will be on how population shifts to amenity-rich regions are reshaping communities and influencing local economies. Panelists will share insights from recent studies, highlighting how the intrinsic qualities of place shape visitor experiences, attract new residents, and drive economic outcomes. Topics will include the economic impacts of outdoor recreation, the challenges of balancing tourism with conservation, and strategies for leveraging regional assets to foster community resilience amid demographic changes.

By examining place-based approaches to tourism, recreation, and migration, this panel aims to offer a nuanced perspective on how economic, cultural, and demographic narratives intertwine in the American West. Attendees will gain a deeper understanding of the critical role that place plays in shaping tourism economies, population dynamics, and regional collaboration.

“Unionization and Offshoring, an Industry Level Analysis” – Elie Kornfeld, Gonzaga University

U.S. multinational offshoring remains a contentious issue in media and politics, often framed as detrimental to domestic workers. While firms adopt offshoring to reduce labor costs and boost efficiency, it’s possible domestic consequences—including downward pressure on wages and rising income inequality due to skill-biased labor demand—require further analysis. This paper investigates how union density influences multinational employment levels across industries, addressing the endogenous relationship between offshoring and unionization. Reverse causality is a key concern: offshoring may reduce domestic employment, thereby decreasing union density. The hypothesis will focus on how weaker unions may further enable offshoring or how strong unions, conversely, minimize it. To mitigate endogeneity from simultaneity, we employ: Lagged variables for multinational employment, first-differencing to control for unobserved industry heterogeneity, and controls for domestic employment and wages across 62 industries. The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides Multinational employment (2009–2022) data on foreign affiliates and parent firms. Unionstats’ 4-digit NAICS time-series data is gathered from the CPS and harmonized with BEA’s dynamic industry classifications through aggregation. While there is significant research into the incentives for offshoring amongst US firms, industrial analysis of how labor institutions affect such decisions is minimal. As US trade becomes increasingly uncertain, this research provides possible labor policy and corporate strategy implications.

“Regional Drivers of Rural Minority Entrepreneurship and Economic Development” – Xiaoyin Li, West Virginia University

Entrepreneurial activity has been recognized as a key driver of rural economic development. While self-employment rates are generally high in non-metro areas, minority groups, particularly Black individuals, still lag significantly behind others. However, research focusing on minority self-employment, especially in the rural U.S., remains limited. Using comprehensive county-level data, this study examines the factors driving Black self-employment across rural regions. Our findings suggest that substantial regional variations exist in the factors associated with Black self-employment, highlighting the need for tailored, region-specific policy responses. We also find that higher Black self-employment promotes local wage and salary employment growth, demonstrating positive impacts on local economic development. These results address the importance of region-specific and group-informed strategies to foster inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystems and enhance economic vitality in rural America.

“Policy, Risk, and Growth: Examining Urban Development Patterns in Wildfire-Prone Western U.S. Cities” – Grant Gillespie, Gonzaga University

This paper examines population growth in Western U.S. metropolitan areas across differing wildfire risk level between 2006 and 2023. Using census tract data on household records, the paper identifies whether urban growth is occurring more frequently in high or low fire risk census tracts. It also considers what state-level and local-level policies, like zoning, infrastructure, and home insurance regulations, may have an influence on the development of these cities. By identifying where growth is occurring and the relationship between growth, policy, and risk, this research opens discussion about future policy and how to encourage growth in different risk zones in order to reduce future costs and create more fire-resilient cities.

The annual Keith Schwer Keynote Forecast is dedicated to the memory of this remarkable mentor and colleague who passed away in 2009.

Keith Schwer was the director of the Center for Business and Economic Development at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 1986-2009, where he was also a professor of economics.

His academic work appeared in Annals of Regional Science, Journal of Applied Economics, and the Review of Regional Studies, among other journals.

Although he is best known for directing the center at UNLV, Keith worked all over the country, including in Maryland, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wyoming. That breadth of experience informed his skill and dedication to applied economics and regional economic development.

His bi-annual Economic Outlook Conferences in Las Vegas were well-known for both their enjoyment and accuracy.

Keith was among a handful of AUBER members attending the NABE fall meeting at the Marriott Hotel between the Twin Towers on 9/11 (2001). He attended the Austin, Texas AUBER conference in October 2009, just two months before he lost his battle with cancer.

Keith excelled at the community activities asked of many AUBER directors and researchers—service on state and local advisory boards and commissions; commentary on local economic conditions in print media, radio, and television; and mentorship others who are doing similar work.

Keith’s commitment to AUBER included roles as a past president, conference host, and recipient of the Fellow of AUBER Award. He inspired many of us with his generosity of time, wisdom, and kindness.

David E. Altig is executive vice president and chief economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He serves on the executive leadership team for the Bank’s economic mobility and resilience strategic priority and is a member of the executive leadership committee.

Altig is a fellow and past president of the National Association for Business Economics. In addition, he is a member of the advisory council of the Global Interdependence Center and its College of Central Bankers and a member of the National Business Economics Issues Council. He serves on the board of the Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy. He has research in several prominent professional journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the National Tax Journal.

Before joining the Atlanta Fed in August 2007, Altig served as vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, where he started as a staff economist in 1991. Before joining the Cleveland Fed, Altig was a faculty member in the department of business economics and public policy at Indiana University. He previously served as an adjunct faculty member in the Scheller School of Business at the Georgia Institute of Technology and from 1994 to 2019 Altig was an adjunct faculty member in the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. He has lectured at several other universities, including the Ohio State University, Case Western Reserve University, Duke University, the University of Iowa, the University of Wisconsin, and the Chinese Executive MBA program sponsored by the University of Minnesota and Lingnan College of Sun Yat-Sen University.

“Analyzing Industrial Diversification in Florida: A Theil Index Decomposition Approach” – John Shannon & Amir B. Ferreira Neto, Florida Gulf Coast University

Industrial diversification is a strategic approach for regional economies to promote growth across multiple industries. Increased diversification for a regional economy can lead to different positive outcomes, including reduced recession risk, increased labor market flexibility and knowledge spillover effects. In the study, we use a Theil index decomposition to analyze which industries and workforce regions across Florida contribute to a more diversified economy.

“The Labor Market Effects of Automation Exposure: Evidence from East Texas Occupations” – Cecilia Cuellar & Manuel Reyes, University of Texas at Tyler

This study investigates how exposure to automation technologies influences employment and wages across East Texas. To estimate the causal impact of automation exposure on labor market outcomes, we implement a quasi-experimental design that compares occupations with high and low levels of exposure. Exposure is classified using an Automation Exposure Score developed by the LMI Institute, which reflects an occupation’s susceptibility to a broad range of technologies, including robotics, rule-based systems, and artificial intelligence.
We apply a Propensity Score Reweighting (PSR) strategy to compare potential labor market outcomes while adjusting for observable differences between high- and low-exposure occupations. Our analysis focuses on four East Texas metropolitan areas: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Texarkana. We use five-year estimates cross-sectional data from the 2018-2023 American Community Survey (ACS), in order to capture structural labor market patterns rather than short-term shocks such as those induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although results are forthcoming, the framework is designed to identify occupations and sectors that are most susceptible to technological disruption. By highlighting occupational categories at higher risk of automation, the study provides actionable insights for policymakers and business leaders who seek to anticipate workforce shifts and implement targeted interventions, such as reskilling programs and investments in digital infrastructure.

“Empowering Career Transitions and Community Development in West Virginia: A Skills Matching Approach” – Heather Stephens & Xiaoyin Li, West Virginia University & David Nason, Florida Gulf Coast University

West Virginia and central Appalachian communities are undergoing significant economic transitions driven by a series of structural shocks. Traditional economic activities such as natural resource extraction and power generation are facing challenges due to the development of automation and the broader shift to clean and renewable energy. As a consequence, communities that have relied heavily on these industries are particularly impacted, leading to decreased job opportunities, population outmigration, and stagnating or declining economic growth. Focusing on a four-county region in southern West Virginia, this project uses a rigorous matching method with comprehensive occupational skills data from Lightcast job postings and O*NET to identify reasonable career pathways for displaced workers. We consider both the importance and depth of skills for each occupation to construct an asymmetric occupation relatedness matrix. The analysis further incorporates potential wage changes, education requirements, and training experience to refine transition strategies and suggest targeted workforce development programs. Our research aims to provide currently distressed workers with diverse, skill-based job options, enabling smoother career transitions and to support community efforts to design effective investment strategies for long-term economic resilience.

“Marginal Returns to Higher Education: Evidence from Kansas Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach” – JongSoo Lee, University of Kansas

Is investing in college worth it? This study examines the marginal returns to higher education, with a particular focus on students marginally admitted to universities in Kansas. It evaluates whether attending college benefits students with relatively weaker academic preparation and assesses both their enrollment likelihood and potential wage premiums. Kansas presents a distinct case due to its less selective admissions policies at state universities. Utilizing unique data from the Kansas Board of Regents (KBOR) and labor records, covering high school graduates from 2007 to 2013 and tracking their university graduation through 2019, the study compares outcomes between students who attended public four-year universities and those who did not, primarily focusing on ACT test scores. The research employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design to rigorously estimate the causal impact of higher education on these marginal students. The findings show that marginal students who go beyond the ACT cutoff for research universities are 22 percent more likely to graduate, whereas those admitted to non-research universities see their graduation likelihood decline by 9 percentage points. In terms of earnings, students attending research universities experience a significant increase in quarterly wages, rising by $8,444 at the cutoff, while no statistically significant wage effects are observed for non-research universities.

“UTeach and K-12 STEM Programs in Alabama and Other States” – Matt Kammer-Kerwick, University of Texas at Austin; & Nyesha Black & Klungu Nzaku, University of Alabama

The UTeach program is a nationally recognized, university-based teacher preparation program designed to address the urgent need for qualified STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) teachers in U.S. secondary schools, first launched in 1997 by The University of Texas at Austin. In 2022, the UTeach Alabama initiative was launched as part of a broader strategy to strengthen the state’s STEM education to workforce pipeline. The Bureau of Business Research (UT Austin) was commissioned to conduct a study to develop a model that estimates the return on investment of new investments in Alabama’s UTeach programs over the next 10 years.

This report provides an overview of the progress, challenges, and projected impact of the UTeach initiative in Alabama, with a focus on advancing STEM workforce participation and readiness through high-quality STEM instruction.

“Navigating Utah’s Demographic Dip: Strategically Positioning Utah Higher Education Amid College-age Population Declines” – Andrea Thomas Brandley, Heidi Prior, & Phil Dean, University of Utah

Pending college-age population declines provide opportunities for state and institutional policymakers to strategically transform, conserve, and realign.

“Migratory Wealth Waves & Regional Housing Markets: A Pandemic-Era Analysis” – John Rees, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The COVID pandemic ushered in a period of substantial social, economic, and logistical turbulence. During this period, numerous long-established ways of living and working were quickly eschewed in favor of behaviors better aligned with the new realities of lives lived in lockdown. Perhaps no behavior better encapsulated this dynamic than the dramatic rise in telecommuting. With the work performed by millions of Americans suddenly divorced from place, there was much speculation that rise in telecommuting might fuel significant changes in US migration trends.
Utilizing IRS migration data, my analysis will reveal that the pandemic and resulting rise in telecommuting failed to supercharge flagging rates of domestic migration. While overall rates of domestic migration rose modestly during the pandemic, the leading destinations for domestic in-migrants prior to the pandemic remained largely unchanged during the pandemic. At the same time, the relative affluence of in-migrants relocating to specific metropolitan areas increased substantially during the pandemic. This was especially true of regions in the west and southeast, where the income of new-migrants greatly exceeded the average reported income of existing residents. Additionally, the emergence of “wealth waves” of comparatively affluent households is correlated with the rise of single-family values during this period.

“Revealing Montana’s Hidden Housing Gaps” – Derek Sheehan, University of Montana

This presentation introduces a Montana-focused housing demand assessment using the concepts of “missing households” and “structural vacancy rates.” Drawing on administrative, survey, and geospatial data, it estimates long-run, locally driven housing demand—emerging from household formation decisions in response to changing housing costs—and uses that framework to identify potential housing shortages or surpluses at the county level. The goal is to support local planners and policymakers with data-informed insights into where housing gaps exist and how they are evolving across Montana communities.

“The Role of Urban Greenspace in Shaping Urban Economies” – Mustahsin Ul Aziz, West Virginia University

As cities expand and housing costs rise, urban planners and policymakers face difficult trade-offs between development and livability. One way that may improve livability is to make investments in greenspace. To assess whether greenspace is valued as a positive amenity, we use data from 950 urban counties in the United States between 2010 and 2019 and examine the relationship between access to greenspace and wages. Our results show that workers are willing to accept lower wages to live in greener neighborhoods. This suggests that greenspace acts as a positive amenity, something people are willing to pay for through reduced earnings in exchange for a higher quality of life. We rely on remote sensed data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI) to measure greenspace and control for potential biases by instrumenting for greenspace using historical land cover data. We also look at broader urban outcomes, finding that greener cities tend to experience more growth in both population and employment. Our findings suggest that policymakers should view greenspace as a strategic investment. By improving access to green areas, municipalities can enhance resident satisfaction, attract workers, and support sustainable economic growth.

ABSTRACT: In January 2024, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth formalized a partnership with the University of Minnesota Extension’s Community Development (CD) department to enhance economic research and outreach efforts. This collaboration has broadened the reach and impact of both organizations by combining research expertise with community engagement.

This session will provide a case study of our partnership, detailing the development of our Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and the impact of our joint efforts. We will highlight key accomplishments, including research on transportation planning, community resilience, and climate migration, as well as the creation of an economic impact calculator for festivals and events. Additionally, we will discuss strategies for securing external funding and lessons learned in building and sustaining an effective university-based partnership.

Attendees will gain insights into how academic centers can structure partnerships, align research with outreach, and maximize their impact through collaboration.

“The Effects of Manufacturing Industry Decline on Quality of Life” – Michael J. Hicks, Ball State University

This study examines how the decline of manufacturing in five Rustbelt States (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI) from 1970 to 2019 affected local quality of life, using a modified Rosen-Roback model as described by Weinstein, Hicks and Wornell (2023). The goal of the study is to identify across rural and nonrural counties in the Midwest whether manufacturing plant closures may increase quality of life over time through improved environmental conditions such as reduced pollution or emissions (Kahn, 1999). Alternatively, there are other regional characteristics affected through, for example, lower demand for local goods and services associated with the job losses and outmigration from manufacturing plant closures, that may reduce quality of life.

“Pending” – Amanda Weinstein, Center on Rural Innovation

Abstract coming soon.

“REMI-AI: Advancing Quantitative Economic Analysis with AI” – Frederick Treyz, Regional Economic Models, Inc.

ABSTRACT: Government policy at the national and state level is changing rapidly. In our pluralistic political system, many organizations, including universities, state agencies, local governments, and more, are analyzing these policies. These organizations, lawmakers, and the public often have an intuitive understanding of the economic issues of a particular policy, but quantifying dynamic economic behaviors can be a difficult analytic task.

REMI-AI supports the need to evaluate the total economic effects of policies. Cause-and-effect relationships between policy and the economy are clearly documented and described, and economic analysis can be easily reported and presented. REMI-AI allows analysts to analyze more policies and deepen their analysis in their studies.

“Forecasting GDP from Outer Space: Satellite Imagery and the Future of Nowcasting” – Jake Schneider, Atlas Analytics, Inc.

ABSTRACT: Atlas Analytics uses satellite imagery from the Landsat Program to estimate economic activity in near real time. In this session, I’ll share insights from our approach to forecasting GDP by measuring physical indicators from space. I’ll discuss how our models compare to traditional methods, the advantages and limitations of geospatial data, and what satellite-based nowcasting can reveal that other models may miss. We believe this technology offers a compelling complement to traditional macroeconomic tools, particularly in data-scarce or rapidly changing environments.

BIO: Jake Schneider is the founder of Atlas Analytics. As a graduate of Harvard and Oxford Universities, he previously served as an Economist and Consultant at the World Bank and Bain & Company as well as an analyst for former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan at his consulting firm Greenspan Associates, LLC.

Mike Russo is a professor emerit of sustainable management in the Department of Management at the Lundquist College of Business. His expertise and specialties include developing strategies for environmental management, creating business plans for mission-driven companies, and managing public policy issues. His research on these topics has been published in journals such as Administrative Science Quarterly, Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Operations Management, and Strategic Management Journal.

Russo received his PhD and MBA from the University of California, Berkeley. Before joining the Lundquist College, he worked as an energy planner specializing in commercialization of wind and solar energy.

A native to Montana, Suzanne Tilleman joined the College of Business in 2010 after earning her PhD from the University of Oregon. Suzanne earned a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering from Georgia Tech and a Masters of Business Administration from Tulane University in New Orleans. Prior to pursuing her PhD, Suzanne spent seven years working in industry and another four years teaching at Montana State University – Northern in her hometown of Havre. Her industry experience includes working for some of the largest players in the natural resources arena: General Electric, Exxon, and Monsanto. Additionally, she played an instrumental role in the creation of the Montana Cooperative Development Center, a state-wide resource for cooperatives.

Suzanne’s research interests and focus include organizational theory, regional business clusters, industrial symbiosis, sustainable entrepreneurship, and panel data methods. In 2015, Suzanne co-authored an article in the peer-reviewed management journal, Long Range Planning, entitled Creating Economic and Environmental Value Through Industrial Symbiosis. In 2016, this work received the Research Impact Award from the Organizations and Environment Division of the Academy of Management. She and her co-authors also received the Best Paper Award at the 2016 GRONEN (Group of Research on Organizations and the Natural Environment) Research Conference. Her most recent publication, Institutional Logics and Technology Development: Evidence from the Wind and Solar Energy Industries, examines differences in creation of alternative energy manufacturing supply chains given economic, regulatory, cultural, and technical resources in Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

“Spacial Distribution of Disconnected Young Adults in the United States” – John Shannon, Amir B. Ferreira Neto, & Melanie Schmees, Florida Gulf Coast University

Disconnected young adults represent a subset of the population that is not engaged in either education or the labor force. This disengagement can lead to long-term economic and health consequences for the young adult while also placing increased strain on public resources. Using microdata from the American Community Survey, we perform a Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis to identify spatial clusters of disconnected young adults throughout the nation. Our results show a high concentration of disconnected young adults along the sunbelt states, Appalachia and the pacific-west states, along with heterogenous effects across gender, race and ethnicity. These findings highlight areas for targeted interventions and sharing of ideas on how to address youth disengagement.

“Evaluating the Impact of Place-Based Jobs Policies in Distressed Areas” – David Nason, Florida Gulf Coast University

Recent legislation authorizing nearly $80 billion for place-based investments has illustrated a growing interest among U.S. policymakers in strategically targeting specific areas to stimulate economic development. Although the literature on place-based policies is mixed, there is evidence that the benefits of local job creation programs are most significant in the areas with the greatest economic distress. However, most place-based spending in the U.S. comes from state and local business tax incentives that generally do not target these areas, thus limiting research on existing customized business service and job training programs targeting distressed places. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature by using matching methods to analyze the impact of job creation policies administered and funded by the Appalachian Regional Commission on employment, wages, and establishment counts in distressed counties. Results from this study indicate that grants administered by the ARC have a modest but statistically significant impact on county annual average wages, with the effects being most pronounced in the region’s most economically distressed areas. While there are no significant impacts on employment, there is some indication of crowding out of establishments following the receipt of a grant, possibly due to grants being targeted at better performing, already established firms.

Forthcoming.

The Mandela Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders is the flagship program of the U.S. Government’s Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI). Since 2014, nearly 7,200 young leaders from every country in Sub-Saharan Africa have participated in the Fellowship. The Fellows, between the ages of 25 and 35, are accomplished leaders and have established records of promoting innovation and positive impact in their communities and countries.